Possible UPSC Prelims / Mains Questions
- Prelims: With reference to India’s crude-oil import basket, arrange the following suppliers in descending order of share for 2024-25: Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates.
- Mains (GS-II / GS-III): “India’s energy security strategy is guided more by diversification than dependence.” Analyse in the context of possible U.S. secondary sanctions on Russian oil.
- Mains (GS-II): Discuss how geopolitical developments—such as Western sanctions on Russia—shape India-U.S. and India-Russia relations, citing recent tariff/sanction episodes.
Quick Outline of Key Facts
| Parameter | Details |
| Share of Russian crude in India’s import basket (2024 avg.) | ~38 % (peaked at 40 % in 2023) |
| Feb 2025 Russian share | ~30 % (imports 1.43 mb/d, -14.5 % m-o-m; lowest since Jan 2023) |
| India’s rank in global crude imports | 3rd largest consumer-importer |
| Current number of supplier countries | 39 (per MoPNG, with more being added) |
| Top suppliers 2024-25 | 1. Russia (~35 %) 2. Iraq 3. Saudi Arabia 4. UAE |
| Govt. stance | “Moral duty to buy cheapest crude”; diversification across ME, Africa, Americas |
| U.S. position (Mar & Jul 2025) | Threat of secondary sanctions & 25 % tariffs; termed Russia & India “dead economies” |
| IEA data (Russian exports 2024) | China 2.4 mb/d, India 1.9 mb/d, Turkey 0.8 mb/d, EU 0.4 mb/d |
| Energy minister | Hardeep Singh Puri |
Summary (≈ 400 words)
In March 2025 President Donald Trump warned that nations continuing to buy Russian crude could face “biting” secondary sanctions; by July he imposed 25 % tariffs on Indian goods and provocatively dubbed Russia and India “dead economies.” The threats chiefly target India’s sizeable reliance on discounted Russian oil, a trade that ballooned after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine when Western buyers shunned Russian barrels.
Current import profile – Russia has become India’s largest single crude supplier, contributing roughly 35-40 % of total volumes through 2023-24. Nevertheless, recent data signal a gradual recalibration: February 2025 imports from Russia fell 14.5 % m-o-m to 1.43 million barrels per day (mb/d)—the lowest since January 2023—and Russia’s share slipped to about 30 %. Declines were also visible in flows from traditional West Asian partners, partly reflecting seasonal and price dynamics.
Economic rationale & government stance – New Delhi’s posture is explicitly transactional: officials highlight a “moral duty” to procure the most cost-effective crude to contain domestic inflation and support growth. Minister Hardeep Singh Puri underscores that Indian public-sector refiners now source oil from 39 countries, with new geographies (Africa, North & South America) continuously explored to hedge geopolitical risk. Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain robust suppliers, with Iraq occupying the second spot. India also imports U.S. and Latin American grades, dilute reliance on any single actor.
Resilience against sanctions – Analysts note several buffers. First, India’s refineries are largely private or state-owned entities that can pivot to alternative suppliers if payment channels for Russian crude tighten. Second, a diversified term-contract portfolio and burgeoning spot purchases from the Middle East and Americas offer flexibility. Third, India leverages its status as the world’s fastest-growing major energy market, allowing it to negotiate favourable freight and premium terms with multiple producers.
However, abrupt U.S. secondary sanctions could raise transaction costs, reroute tanker traffic and squeeze the discount on Russian barrels—pressuring refinery margins. India therefore continues quiet diplomacy with Washington while backing multilateral voices emphasising energy affordability for the Global South.
In geostrategic terms, the episode illustrates the “stability-instability paradox” in energy: sanctions meant to punish Moscow simultaneously create opportunity for New Delhi to secure cheaper inputs yet expose it to coercive leverage from the West. Balancing great-power relations while safeguarding energy security remains a central challenge.
